Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Did CNN-Trump Town Hall Help Biden in New Poll? (He Leads Trump by 6 Points)

We're still a year and a half away from the next presidential election, but we already know the two most likely people to become the Democratic and Republican parties' nominees — current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, respectively.

Polling on the race is already showing it will likely be a close one. As of May 7, the RealClearPolitics average of polls had Trump actually slightly ahead of Biden, though his lead was within the margin of error for the polls taken.

Today, however, is different — a new Reuters/Ipsos poll has Biden leading Trump, by around the same margin he won the 2020 presidential election.

From Reuters:

Among registered voters, Biden led Trump, his predecessor as president, by six percentage points in a hypothetical match-up, 44% to 38%

What's changed? Aside from some interviews he's done with far-right networks, Trump really hasn't been making appearances in mainstream media over the past year. He's been silent on Twitter, and while his thoughts are accessible on Truth Social, the media aren't really reporting on them (they should be, tbh).

But CNN's disastrous town hall with Trump last week made headlines on every news site, and made Trump the talk of the water cooler the day after it aired. It was unavoidable to know what Trump had said — and he said a lot of unhinged things, ranging from calling host Kaitlan Collins "nasty," to possibly defaming E. Jean Carroll once again while blasting her and the lawsuit she won against him alleging he sexually assaulted her.

It's possible that the town hall, as bad as it was, helped make Trump the less popular option between him and Biden — the poll was conducted from May 9-15, and the town hall aired on May 9. 

We can't really know for sure, but as Trump becomes more accessible (along with his big mouth), we should expect more polls to show distaste for him, barring Biden doing something completely out of line.

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