Monday, November 5, 2012


Final thoughts on how the races will end up tomorrow night

Let’s be honest: a good prediction is what the people want to hear (or in this case, read). The presidential election isn’t a sure thing yet -- but many media are reporting on the odds of an Obama/Romney win. So with that in mind, I want to share my insights.

Obama will win 290-300 electoral votes, or more. Swing states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida will swing for Obama. Nevada and Iowa are still too close in my mind, with either candidate in my mind being fully capable of winning both (Nevada's polls actually have Obama likely to win, but I'm still skeptical). New Hampshire is close, too, but will ultimately go for the incumbent. If those states all go as I predict, and Obama keeps Virginia blue, then the president will have a 300+ electoral college vote count. With some of those states being very close, however, the range will be between 290 and 300 for Obama.

The popular vote will be within 5 percent. Even with a strong electoral vote showing, Barack Obama will be hard-pressed to break the 5-percent spread over Mitt Romney. Blue states are strongholds for the president, but the red states are significantly more “redder.” The electoral college isn’t a democratic method of picking our president, and it’s even possible that Obama could win it without the popular vote. Nevertheless, my prediction is that Obama will have a 3-5 percent popular vote win.

The Senate will not change hands. Expect Democrats to hold onto the Senate. While moderate Republicans could have easily helped led the charge to take back the chamber, extremist elements have caused voters to baulk at giving the GOP control. Controversial comments about rape, and the legitimacy of abortions in that horrifying event, have caused many women (and their husbands/fathers) to back away from extreme-right Republicans.

Democrats won’t take back the House. They will improve, to be sure. Around 10-20 seats will be picked up by the Democrats, many of whom will be winning districts that will be swung by the president or were “over-swung” in 2010 by Tea Party hysteria, which has since died down in those moderate districts. But Democrats need 28 seats to take back the House. It’s not an impossible feat, and if I’m wrong it wouldn’t be that surprising. But it’s more likely that Democrats will have to try to win back the chamber in 2014 rather than in 2012.

Tammy Baldwin will defeat Tommy Thompson. In what has been one of the most grueling back-and-forth contests across the nation, Tammy Baldwin will pull this one out against the well-known former governor. Thompson has alienated far too many people with his comments on Medicare, claiming he’d be the best person to end the program. And extremist comments by his son, who joked about sending Obama back to Kenya, haven’t helped either. These factors, coupled by the amount of time Obama has dedicated to the state, will help bring Tammy to the upper chamber of Congress.

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