Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Ryan pick not paying off nationally for Romney

National poll shows VP pick didn't improve GOP's presidential prospects

A new poll shows that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's pick for his running mate isn't helping to improve his chances overall.

Generally, candidates can expect a nation-wide "bump" in polling following their vice presidential picks. In 2008, for instance, Barack Obama saw a jump in the number of voters who would be more likely to vote for him due to his pick of Joe Biden for vice president.

24 percent of Americans were more likely to vote for Obama due to the pick, as opposed to 16 percent who were less likely.

Other picks had similar outcomes:
  • Sarah Palin in 2008 (34 percent more likely vs. 25 percent less likely)
  • John Edwards in 2004 (28 percent vs. 7 percent)
  • Joe Lieberman in 2000 (20 percent vs. 7 percent)
  • Dick Cheney in 2000 (16 percent more likely vs. 14 percent less likely)
But polling for Mitt Romney following his pick of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) shows that voters are unchanged in their view of the GOP ticket.

22 percent of voters say they were more likely to vote for Romney based on his choice of Ryan, a significant jump to be sure. But 23 percent said they were LESS likely to vote for Romney due to the pick. 54 percent said the pick didn't affect their choice either way.

Mitt Romney's net polling numbers following his choice of Paul Ryan produce a negative result. While the pick may have helped Romney solidify the conservative base he had trouble courting during the primaries, in the end the pick has done little-to-nothing to help him politically come November.

(In fact, it may end up hurting him).

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